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Basic Account. You only have access to basic statistics. Single Account. The ideal entry-level account for individual users. Corporate solution including all features. Statistics on " Walt Disney Company " The most important statistics. FiveThirtyEight , sometimes rendered as , is an American website that focuses on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging. The website, which takes its name from the number of electors in the United States electoral college , [ 1] was founded on March 7, , as a polling aggregation website with a blog created by analyst Nate Silver.
During the presidential primaries and general election of the site compiled polling data through a unique methodology derived from Silver's experience in sabermetrics to "balance out the polls with comparative demographic data". Since the election, the site has published articles—typically creating or analyzing statistical information—on a wide variety of topics in current politics and political news. These included a monthly update on the prospects for turnover in the Senate ; federal economic policies; Congressional support for legislation; public support for health care reform , global warming legislation and LGBT rights ; elections around the world; marijuana legalization ; and numerous other topics.
The site and its founder are best known for election forecasts, including the presidential election in which FiveThirtyEight correctly predicted the vote winner of all 50 states. FiveThirtyEight has won numerous awards. When Silver started FiveThirtyEight in early March , he published under the name Poblano, the same name that he had used since November when he began publishing a diary on the political blog Daily Kos. FiveThirtyEight gained further national attention for beating out most pollsters' projections in the North Carolina and Indiana Democratic party primaries on May 6, As Mark Blumenthal wrote in National Journal , "Over the last week, an anonymous blogger who writes under the pseudonym Poblano did something bold on his blog, FiveThirtyEight.
He posted predictions for the upcoming primaries based not on polling data, but on a statistical model driven mostly by demographic and past vote data Critics scoffed. Most of the public polls pointed to a close race in North Carolina But a funny thing happened. The model got it right. On May 30, , Silver revealed his true identity for the first time to his FiveThirtyEight readers. As the primary season was coming to an end, Silver began to build a model for the general election race.
This model, too, relied in part on demographic information but mainly involved a complex method of aggregating polling results. In , Rasmussen Reports had an apparently short-term partnership with FiveThirtyEight in order to include this unique methodology for generating poll averages in their "Balance of Power Calculator". By early October , FiveThirtyEight approached 2. Much like Grantland , which ESPN launched in , the site will retain an independent brand sensibility and editorial point-of-view, while interfacing with other websites in the ESPN and Disney families. The site will return to its original URL, www.
According to Silver, the focus of FiveThirtyEight in its ESPN phase would broaden: "People also think it's going to be a sports site with a little politics thrown in, or it's going to be a politics site with sports thrown in But we take our science and economics and lifestyle coverage very seriously It's a data journalism site. Politics is one topic that sometimes data journalism is good at covering. It's certainly good with presidential elections. But we don't really see politics as how the site is going to grow". The lead story by Silver explained that "FiveThirtyEight is a data journalism organization We've expanded our staff from two full-time journalists to 20 and counting.
Few of them will focus on politics exclusively; instead, our coverage will span five major subject areas — politics, economics, science, life and sports. Our team also has a broad set of skills and experience in methods that fall under the rubric of data journalism. These include statistical analysis, but also data visualization, computer programming and data-literate reporting. So in addition to written stories, we'll have interactive graphics and features". One unique aspect of the site is Silver's efforts to rank pollsters by accuracy, weight their polls accordingly, and then supplement those polls with his own electoral projections based on demographics and prior voting patterns.
FiveThirtyEight weighs pollsters' historical track records through a complex methodology [ 8] and assigns them values to indicate "Pollster-Introduced Error". At base Silver's method is similar to other analysts' approaches to taking advantage of the multiple polls that are conducted within each state: he averaged the polling results. But especially in the early months of the election season polling in many states is sparse and episodic.
The "average" of polls over an extended period perhaps several weeks would not reveal the true state of voter preferences at the present time, nor provide an accurate forecast of the future. One approach to this problem was followed by Pollster. However, while adopting such an approach in his own analysis, Silver reasoned that there was additional information available in polls from "similar" states that might help to fill the gaps in information about the trends in a given state. Accordingly, he adapted an approach that he had previously used in his baseball forecasting : using nearest neighbor analysis he first identified "most similar states" and then factored into his electoral projections for a given state the polling information from "similar states".
He carried this approach one step further by also factoring national polling trends into the estimates for a given state. Thus, his projections were not simply based on the polling trends in a given state. Furthermore, a basic intuition that Silver drew from his analysis of the Democratic party primary elections was that the voting history of a state or Congressional district provided clues to current voting. This is what allowed him to beat all the pollsters in his forecasts in the Democratic primaries in North Carolina and Indiana , for example. For his general election projections for each state, in addition to relying on the available polls in a given state and "similar states," Silver estimated a " regression " using historical voting information along with demographic characteristics of the states to create an estimate that he treated as a separate poll equivalent to the actually available polls from that state.
This approach helped to stabilize his projections, because if there were few if any polls in a given state, the state forecast was largely determined by the regression estimate. In July , the site began to report regular updates of projections of U. Senate races. Special procedures were developed relying on both polls and demographic analysis. The projections were updated on a weekly basis. In the final update of his presidential forecast model at midday of November 4, , Silver projected a popular vote victory by 6. Silver's predictions matched the actual results everywhere except in Indiana and the 2nd congressional district of Nebraska , which awards an electoral vote separately from the rest of the state.
His projected national popular vote differential was below the actual figure of 7. The forecasts for the Senate proved to be correct for every race, but the near stalemate in Minnesota led to a recount that was settled only on June 30, In Alaska , after a protracted counting of ballots, on November 19 Republican incumbent Ted Stevens conceded the seat to Democrat Mark Begich , an outcome that Silver had forecast on election day. During the first two months after the election, no major innovations in content were introduced.
A substantial percentage of the articles focused on Senatorial races: the runoff in Georgia, won by Saxby Chambliss ; recounts of votes in Alaska won by Mark Begich , and Minnesota Al Franken vs. During the post election period Silver devoted attention to developing some tools for the analysis of forthcoming Congressional elections , [ 13] [ 14] as well as discussing policy issues and the policy agenda for the Obama administration, especially economic policies.
Later, Silver adapted his methods to address a variety of issues of the day, including health care reform, climate change, unemployment, and popular support for same-sex marriage. According to Silver's analysis, Strategic Vision's data displayed statistical anomalies that were inconsistent with random polling. Later, he uncovered indirect evidence that Strategic Vision may have gone as far as to fabricate the results of a citizenship survey taken by Oklahoma high school students, which led him to denounce Strategic Vision as "disreputable and fraudulent.
International affairs columnist Renard Sexton began the series with an analysis of polling leading up to the election; [ 23] then posts by Silver, Andrew Gelman and Sexton analyzed the reported returns and political implications. The " model" once again aggregated the disparate polls to correctly predict that the Republican Scott Brown would win. In spring of , FiveThirtyEight turned a focus on the United Kingdom general election scheduled for May 6 , with a series of more than forty articles on the subject that culminated in projections of the number of seats that the three major parties were expected to win. The majority of polling organisations in the UK use the concept of uniform swing to predict the outcome of elections.
However, by applying his own methodology, Silver produced very different results, which suggested that a Conservative victory might have been the most likely outcome. On June 6, , FiveThirtyEight posted pollster rankings that updated and elaborated Silver's efforts from the election. Silver expanded the database to more than 4, election polls and developed a model for rating the polls that was more sophisticated than his original rankings. Silver responded on "Where's the transparency? Well, it's here [citing his June 6 article], in an article that contains 4, words and 18 footnotes.
Every detail of how the pollster ratings are calculated is explained. It's also here [referring to another article], in the form of Pollster Scorecards, a feature which we'll continue to roll out over the coming weeks for each of the major polling firms, and which will explain in some detail how we arrive at the particular rating that we did for each one". As for why the complete polling database had not been released publicly, Silver responded: "The principal reason is because I don't know that I'm legally entitled to do so. The polling database was compiled from approximately eight or ten distinct data sources, which were disclosed in a comment which I posted shortly after the pollster ratings were released, and which are detailed again at the end of this article.
These include some subscription services, and others from websites that are direct competitors of this one. Although polls contained in these databases are ultimately a matter of the public record and clearly we feel as though we have every right to use them for research purposes, I don't know what rights we might have to re-publish their data in full". Silver also commented on the fact that the ratings had contributed to Markos Moulitsas 's decision to end Daily Kos ' s use of Research as its pollster.
Other researchers questioned aspects of the methodology. On June 16, , Silver announced on his blog that he is willing to give all pollsters who he had included in his rating a list of their polls that he had in his archive, along with the key information that he used poll marginals, sample size, dates of administration ; and he encouraged the pollsters to examine the lists and the results to compare them with the pollster's own record and make corrections. In September , Silver put into the public domain all of his pollster ratings, [ 42] as well as descriptive summary data for all of the more than 6, polls in his data collection for the final three weeks of U.
Presidential primaries and general elections, state governor elections, and U. Senate and U. Congress elections for the years — The blog would be listed under the "Politics" tab of the News section of the Times. Silver received bids from several major media entities before selecting the Times. You shouldn't want to belong to any media brand that seems desperate to have you as a member, even though they'll probably offer the most cash".
Senate election forecasts. At the same time, Silver published a brief history of the blog. Senate , the U. House of Representatives , and state Governorships. Each of these models relied initially on a combination of electoral history, demographics, and polling. The model had forecast a net pickup of 8 seats by the Republicans in the Senate and 55 seats in the House, close to the actual outcome of a pickup of 6 seats in the Senate and 63 seats in the House. When the transition to The New York Times was announced, Silver listed his staff of writers for the first time.
Andrew Gelman contributed again in early Beginning in , one writer who emerged as a regular contributor was Micah Cohen. Cohen provided a periodic "Reads and Reactions" column in which he summarized Silver's articles for the previous couple of weeks, as well as reactions to them in the media and other blogs, and suggested some additional readings related to the subject of Silver's columns.
Silver identified Cohen as "my news assistant". On September 12, , Silver introduced another writer: "FiveThirtyEight extends a hearty welcome to John Sides, a political scientist at George Washington University, who will be writing a series of posts for this site over the next month. While politics and elections remained the main focus of FiveThirtyEight , the blog also sometimes addressed sports, including the March Madness [ 51] [ 52]  and the NCAA Men's Basketball tournament selection process, [ 53] the B. FiveThirtyEight published a graph showing different growth curves of the news stories covering Tea Party and Occupy Wall Street protests.
Silver pointed out that conflicts with the police caused the sharpest increases in news coverage of the protests [ 64] and assessed the geography of the protests by analyzing news reports of the size and location of events across the United States. FiveThirtyEight rolled out its general election forecasting model on June 7, The model forecast both the popular vote and the Electoral College vote, with the latter being central to the exercise and involving a forecast of each state. In the initial forecast, Barack Obama was estimated to have a The website provided maps and statistics about the electoral outcomes in each state as well as nationally.
Later posts addressed methodological issues such as the "house effects" of different pollsters as well as the validity of telephone surveys that did not call cell phones. For example, Rasmussen Reports "missed on six of its nine swing-state polls". And assuming that his projected margin of error figures represent 95 percent confidence intervals, which it is likely they did, Silver performed just about exactly as well as he would expect to over 50 trials.
Wizard, indeed". As of July, it had a staff of 20 writers, editors, data visualization specialists, and others. In addition to feature articles it produced podcasts on a range of subjects. Monthly traffic to the site grew steadily from about 2. Senate elections being contested that year. However, Silver also remarked, "An equally important theme is the high degree of uncertainty around that outcome. A large number of states remain competitive, and Democrats could easily retain the Senate". FiveThirtyEight sought to apply its mathematical models to the Oscars, and produced internal predictions regarding the subject, predicting four out of six categories correctly.
FiveThirtyEight applied two separate models to forecast the presidential primary elections — polls-only and polls-plus models. The polls-only model relied only on polls from a particular state, while the polls-plus model was based on state polls, national polls and endorsements. The rent for the first year is Rs 9. With reduced ready supply in this segment and rising demand, both capital values and rentals have gone up, he adds. Simply Save How investors can access international real estate through mutual funds? Reproduction of news articles, photos, videos or any other content in whole or in part in any form or medium without express writtern permission of moneycontrol. Early bird offer Rs. Register now! Walt Disney India head rents apartment in Mumbai for Rs Vandana Ramnani.
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